U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to choke off Russia’s oil revenue via secondary sanctions would deal a hammer blow to Moscow's finances, but markets are betting that the risk of higher energy prices will keep Washington from following through.

Oil prices fell yesterday despite Trump threatening 100% secondary tariffs on Russia, a clear sign that the market isn’t buying his threats. ICE Brent settled a little more than 1.6% lower.

President Trump's recent threat to penalise Russia draws attention to its biggest oil buyers. Since the Ukraine invasion, India now sources over a third of its oil from Russia, while China consistently imports over 1 million barrels daily.