Brazil’s presidential election is on a knife-edge. Right-winger Flávio Bolsonaro has powerful interests on his side but is also counting on the Trump administration’s help to push him over the line.

Thirty years ago, Wayne Smith, the former chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, argued in a 1996 essay that Cuba might follow something resembling Spain’s path under Francisco Franco.

Judge Sebastián Ramos issued a 9-page ruling based on an exhaustive analysis of documentary and testimonial evidence, ...