Investors appear to be expecting another extension of the China deadline—anything other than that could be a shock.

U.S. levies on Chinese goods like toys, footwear and furniture could rise sharply if a deal is not approved by Tuesday’s deadline.

Trump said Monday that he has cut a deal with chipmaker Nvidia, allowing it to sell certain artificial intelligence chips to China in exchange for a cut of the revenue, which would go to the U.S. government. Trump said he also negotiated a similar deal with chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).