Rising energy costs from the Iran conflict threaten Germany's economy. ECB rate cut of 50+ bps by April 2026 at 0% YES.

Outgoing Dow CEO Jim Fitterling warns that logistical disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz could take about 275 days to ...

Trump extended the Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks. Endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at 100% YES.

OpenAI's new model outperforms GPT-5.4, leading to speculation on GPT-5.5 release; odds for release by June 30, 2026, at 99.9 ...

US sends emergency fuel to Australia amid Hormuz blockade. US escorts commercial ships through Hormuz by April 30 at 6% YES.

Pentagon email reveals tensions with NATO allies over Iran conflict. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 at 0.5% YES.

HOYA BIT, a Taiwan-based cryptocurrency exchange, recently announced that it has become the world’s first crypto exchange to ...

Hundreds of ghost-fleet vessels continue dodging U.S. measures targeting Iran’s oil trade, and the Polymarket contract on ...

Europe's seaborne gas supply declines due to maintenance and global issues. ECB rate cut of 50 bps in April 2026 at 0.1% YES.

Swiss National Bank signals readiness to intervene in forex due to Iran war impact. Bitcoin dip to $60K in April at 1% YES.

Intel's revenue growth from AI processors has lowered the odds of Nvidia being the largest company by market cap on June 30 ...

German IFO expectations fell to 83.3, yet the odds for a 50 bps ECB rate cut in April 2026 remain at 0.1% YES.