Iran asserts control over the Strait of Hormuz, lowering the chance of a US blockade lift by May 31 to 72.5% YES.

VP Vance will attend US-Iran talks in Islamabad, but skepticism remains; no qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at ...

The Israeli army reports eliminating over 250 Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, a development relevant to Polymarket ...

Trump claims Iran agrees to avoid nuclear weapons, but the market is skeptical with enrichment agreement by April 30 at 31.9% ...

The standoff between Washington and Tehran shows no clear path to resolution, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade directly ...

US Ambassador claims IRGC is in disarray due to US actions. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30 at 16.5% ...

Iran's President asserts Trump's lack of authority over its nuclear program, dropping sanction relief odds to 40% YES.

Iran’s decision to skip negotiations in Pakistan due to a US blockade has pushed the likelihood of Trump announcing a ...

Aave's TVL fell by $6 billion after a hack exploited a bridge flaw. Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026 at 4% YES.

Trump threatened Iran's infrastructure if talks fail, causing peace deal odds by April 22 to drop to 20% YES, while April 30 ...

Waltz's comments on Trump's threat to Iran caused peace deal odds to drop sharply, with a deal by April 22, 2026 now at 19.5% ...

Iran is under martial law as the IRGC consolidates power amid economic decline. Regime fall by May 31 at 3.6% YES.