US-Iran nuclear talks collapsed, increasing nuclear strike risks. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 13.5% YES.

Iran war disrupts oil supply, pushing crude to $90 by June. Market for crude oil hitting $90 by June at 67% YES.

Starmer's Labour Party is projected to lose seats in the May 7 UK elections. Starmer out by December 31, 2026 at 71.5% YES.

US-Iran tensions escalate with predictions of military strikes complicating ceasefire efforts. Diplomatic meeting by June 30, ...

DeepSeek delays V4 model release to late April, shifting to Chinese chips. Alibaba has best AI model by April 30 at 15% YES.

Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF sees $184M inflows amid US-Iran ceasefire. Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 at 2.9% YES.

Iran's mining in the Strait of Hormuz raises UK warship deployment speculation, but odds remain low at 1.4% YES for ...

A gunman targeted Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, but odds for him to insult Tucker Carlson by April 30 ...

Trump escalated his Iran strategy with a naval blockade and frozen crypto assets. Permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 at 2 ...

Aave once criticized Solana's DeFi, but is now benefiting from its support. The Solana Foundation deploys treasury into Aave ...

Bitcoin hits $78,000 amid US-Iran tensions, but the chance of reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026 is only at 4.9% YES.

US intercepted a sanctioned vessel in the Arabian Sea amid Iran enforcement. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by May 31 at 75% ...