An Israeli drone strike in Gaza City has resulted in the deaths of at least two Palestinians, according to Middle East Eye.

Poland offers to modernize Ukraine's MiG-29s with external funding. Ukraine recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 10.5% ...

Oman summoned the Iranian ambassador over recent attacks. US-Iran final nuclear deal by August 13, 2026 at 2.9% YES.

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, causing maritime traffic to drop. Traffic returns to normal by August 31 at 17.5% YES.

Strait of Hormuz instability raises concerns for global energy supply. WTI reaching $130 in July 2026 at 0.4% YES.

Iran denies blaming a rogue faction for the Strait of Hormuz attack, signaling reduced confidence; traffic normal by August ...

The son of an IRGC commander vows retaliation, raising expectations for Iranian actions against shipping on July 12 to 89.5% ...

IBIT Bitcoin ETF sees $292M inflow, ending an 8-week outflow streak. Bitcoin above $58K on July 12 at 99.9% YES.

Zelensky reshuffles cabinet, appoints Svyrydenko as PM. Ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 at 41.5% YES.

US embassy warns Americans in Oman to shelter amid Iran drone strikes. US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31 at 34.5% YES.

England and Argentina advance to the 2026 World Cup semifinals. Argentina eliminated in semifinals at 55% YES.

Declan Rice's illness raises concerns for England's World Cup chances. Elimination in the semifinals now at 44.5% YES.