Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops amid security concerns. Fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 at ...

A Hezbollah post-ceasefire booby trap killed an IDF reservist in southern Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 ...

Iran confronts the US over a minesweeper in the Strait of Hormuz. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 6.7% YES.

Iran's Rezaei dismisses Trump's nuclear claims as 'April lies.' Ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 at 23% YES.

Trump convened a Situation Room meeting as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 at 12% ...

US forces have returned 23 vessels to Iran as part of a naval blockade, and the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market ...

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions with the US. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at 1.4% YES.

Aave's price dropped 12% after Kelp DAO's $280M DeFi exploit. Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026 is at 4% YES.

IRGC warns vessels in the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted if ignored. UK sending warships by April 30, 2026 at 8.5% YES.

Israel prepares for potential Iran escalation as US military posture shifts. Ceasefire ending by April 21 now at 20% YES.

Lindsey Graham claims Iran's military holds real power, with the chance of regime collapse by May 31 now at 3.6% YES.

Trump ordered Israel to halt attacks on Lebanon, enforcing a 10-day ceasefire. Market on Trump endorsing ceasefire by April ...