Citadel acquires a stock portfolio from Situational Awareness LP after AI losses, as Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund navigates ...

This article examines how recent events may relate to prediction market pricing. It reflects interpretive analysis of ...

Musk denies Tesla is selling its China business for a SpaceX merger. Merger officially announced by December 31 at 25.5% YES.

Trump announces a 'historic' disarmament deal with Hamas. US-Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026 at 38% YES.

Musk restructures Tesla's China business for a potential SpaceX merger. Merger officially announced by December 31 at 26% YES ...

Oil prices dropped over $1 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz improved. New all-time high for crude oil by September 30 at ...

Two tankers carrying Saudi oil for India went dark while exiting the Red Sea. Closure of Bab el-Mandeb Strait by September 30 ...

Egypt's PM secured alternative energy supplies after a drone strike hit LNG tankers at Damietta port, marking the first ...

Senator Tom Cotton backs Trump's Iran strikes and calls for sustained airstrikes as roughly $80 billion is wiped from crypto ...

IDF demolishes Hezbollah command center after cease-fire breach. Permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026 at 0.2% YES.

Oil prices retracted after initial gains amid US-Iran tensions. New all-time high by September 30 at 5.6% YES, by December 31 ...

US airstrikes hit Iranian military sites in response to missile attacks. Iran targeting Ukraine by August 31 at 4.6% YES.