Iran captures a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, raising tensions. 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 at 69% YES.

Iran's ongoing conflict boosts profits for energy and defense firms. Peace deal between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2026 at ...

Operation Epic Fury targets Iran and Khamenei's assassination raises leadership change odds. Leadership change by December 31 ...

## Market Snapshot Iran military action against neighbors is currently priced with increased likelihood due to recent events.

Government reliance on consultants exposes critical weaknesses in state capacity and economic strategy. Governments need to ...

In the “Control of House in 2026 Midterm Elections” market, no current odds are available, but recent developments may ...

Iran Airspace Closure market shows a 3.2% YES pricing for May 8 closure, down from 4% 24 hours ago, while the May 31 market ...

NBA playoff dynamics reveal how financial incentives and strategic decisions shape team performances and outcomes.

Starmer faces leadership doubts after heavy local election losses. Out by June 30, 2026 at 49.5% YES; out by December 31, ...

Solv Protocol migrates $700M in wrapped Bitcoin from LayerZero to Chainlink CCIP, enhancing secure cross-chain migration and ...

Priced at 2.2% YES by May 31, showing minimal change. – The UAE’s response to an Iranian air attack appears consistent with ...

– Market activity suggests that the escalation between the US and Iran could lead to higher oil prices. – The probability of ...