The Polymarket question on whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May ...

The market for “Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?” currently shows a 2.6% YES probability, down from 3% in ...

Red Cross warns of renewed Iran attacks amid airspace closure concerns. Iran closes its airspace by May 8 at 14.5% YES, by ...

Israel orders evacuations in southern Lebanon amid military operations. Withdrawal by May 31, 2026 at 2.4% YES; by June 30, ...

In the “Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on May 2?” market, the current pricing reflects a 0.1% YES. This unchanged pricing ...

China’s decision to block Meta’s acquisition of Manus AI suggests increased regulatory scrutiny that could affect Meta’s ...

OPEC+ raised oil output by 188,000 bpd amid geopolitical tensions. Oil hitting $90 by June priced at 100% YES.

The execution of Mehrab Abdollahzadeh appears to suggest increased international scrutiny on Iran’s human rights practices. – ...

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy. Ceasefire by June 30 at 9.5% YES.

UK local elections could challenge Labour's leadership. Starmer out by June 30, 2026 at 40.5% YES; out by December 31, 2026 ...

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026: currently priced at 9.5% YES, down from 10% 24 hours ago. The decrease reflects ...

DeFi's true risk-adjusted yields should be 12.5%, challenging current lending rates amid $606 million in exploits.