Ofer Golan, a key Netanyahu adviser, has shifted allegiance to Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party, with the market on ...

The U.S. has depleted nearly 90% of some air defense and precision missile capabilities after weeks of engagement in Iran, ...

Trump suggests the Iran war could end soon, but a permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, is only at 2.4% YES.

Iran sends written messages to the US via Pakistan, indicating low-level diplomacy. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June ...

Trump reiterates U.S. stance on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30 at 47.5% YES.

Trump criticized NATO allies, prompting traders to reassess US withdrawal. Withdrawal from NATO by April 30 at 0.1% YES.

Israel's High Court orders enforcement of the draft law, pressuring Netanyahu's coalition. Netanyahu out by June 30 at 5.5% ...

IRGC intercepted vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, but UK warship deployment odds remain unchanged at 1.2% YES.

Senator Tillis drops opposition to Warsh's Fed chair confirmation. Odds for confirmation by May 15 rise to 88% YES.

A video circulating online fuels speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei's status. Iran leadership change by December 31 at 41% ...

Larry Johnson, ex-CIA, points out that Stratotankers, aircraft carriers, and nuclear-capable submarines are now in position, ...

The Israeli Army struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon today. Suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 at 100% YES.