FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

Ron DeSantis Ron DeSantis Probably Didn't Turn Florida Red The state was already changing in big ways before he was elected governor.

Voting Rights How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress And why people of color are winning more seats outside of those districts too.

Today, FiveThirtyEight is launching our endorsement tracker for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. And while it’s early in the primary season, former President Donald Trump currently has ...

Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of… ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

California doesn’t just have some of the nation’s strictest gun laws and lowest gun death rates, it’s also maybe the best state to study gun laws in, said Dr. Garen Wintemute, director of ...

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of h… ...

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

The Supreme Court’s June 2022 ruling overturning the national constitutional right to abortion has reshaped politics. Has it reshaped yours? The conventional wisdom is that that’s in part ...

If it were up to me — and I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan, where you could literally hear the roar of the crowd from Spartan Stadium in my backyard on game days — the Big Ten would have ...

The Details FiveThirtyEight’s Senate, House and gubernatorial models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. There are, however ...