Looking ahead to 2026, the Fed’s own median projection or “dot plot” suggested there would be only one additional 25 basis points cut. This would move the rate to around 3.25% to 3.50% by year end. Market expectations are slightly more dovish, calling for two rate cuts, which would push rates closer to 3%.

Ahead of the New Year's holiday, President Donald Trump said he will make a decision on who he wants to lead the Federal Reserve by January. Current Chair Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026, and he has made it clear he will fulfill his obligation running the central bank.